Dave Scherer - "TONY KHAN HAS SPENT A LOT OF MONEY SO FAR ON AEW BUT THIS IS THE ONE THING HE CAN’T AFFORD NOT TO BUY"

[Bob-O]

TONY KHAN HAS SPENT A LOT OF MONEY SO FAR ON AEW BUT THIS IS THE ONE THING HE CAN’T AFFORD NOT TO BUY
By Dave Scherer on 2019-07-19 11:35:00

You know the old saying, “You don’t get a second chance to make a first impression” right? Well I am going to take a page out of Ben Stein’s book and I am going to spend some of Tony Kahn’s money. OK, I am going to spend a LOT of Tony Khan’s money.

A lot.

As we all know, Khan’s fledgling AEW promotion will debuts its TV show on TNT in October (with the buzz being the 2nd as the debut date). Once we get past all of the “We are going to change the business” types of statements that have come from the company’s camp, the real mission of AEW is to become a successful entity. Sure, a billionaire’s money can prop up a business for a long, long time. Shoot, all we have to do is look at TNA to see how long the Carter family fortune kept things running down in Nashville before the company eventually ended up with Anthem. If a rich person wants to lose money on a vanity project (cough, the rebirth of the XFL, cough), then they can do so in grand fashion.

But, in most cases, rich people don’t amass their fortune by backing money losing ventures. It goes against all of the principles that made them rich in the first place. What they do is put aside seed money for a project and see if they can make it a success within the timelines that are set out in the business plan that they draw up.

I think it’s fair to assume that no matter how much Tony Khan wants to run a wrestling company, there is a point in time where his father Shad will say “enough” if AEW doesn’t stand on its own and generate the revenue that is needed for the promotion to be self sufficient. In the year 2019, there is one way to generate that kind of revenue, and that way is TV rights fees, not house shows, merchandise or PPV buyrates. That makes drawing an audience on TNT a huge, huge priority. It is the only way that AEW can convert their ad split deal (which is what WWE had for years with USA), to a relationship where TNT pays significant rights fees to the Khans.

There seems to be a sentiment among AEW supporters and observers that all they have to do is put a show on TV and it will be a huge success. They believe it’s like the movie “Field of Dreams”, if they build it, they will come. They point to the fact that AEW has sold out the venues of both PPVs they have put on sale (while ignoring the fact that the two shows in smaller buildings did not sell out). They feel that once AEW is on TNT, the rest of the world will immediately see in the promotion the greatness that they already know about.

They are wrong. It just doesn’t work that way. Getting an audience for a TV show just doesn’t happen. Fans don’t just tune in because you put an episode on the air. You have to draw them in. You have to make them excited. You have to make the choose to tune in. With a fledgling promotion like AEW, to get people other than the core fans that already know about them to tune in, you need to give them a reason. That reason is the talent.

Now, let me preface what is to come by saying that when talking about the talent on AEW’s roster, I AM NOT referring to whether they are great workers or not. That is immaterial to this point. What a lot of hardcore fans don’t realize is that many, many fans are not like them. They don’t read sites like this. They don’t watch wrestling from Japan, or even NXT. They turn on a TV show and want to see stars (and also good stories, but stars first and foremost).

When AEW debuts in October, who are the top talents that they will they see?

*Chris Jericho. Clearly, he is the most known name on the roster. He was a vital get for AEW and more important, from a mainstream perspective, than anyone that they have on the roster.

*Jon Moxley. I love him as a worker, but if the average fan tunes in to AEW, will they know he used to be Dean Ambrose? Maybe, maybe not. If he could go under his WWE name, he would mean so much more to the company, but that just isn’t an option. Jericho is the top NAME because he has his name. Mox does not.

*Cody. I love his work, I really do. But what will the non-hardcore fan think when they see him? WWE mid card talent. Again, you need to look at this from the new fan perspective, not the hardcore fan that has followed Cody since he left WWE. If you can engage the viewers over time they will get to see how good Cody really is, but their first impression will be Dashing.

*Kenny Omega. He can tear down the house and has a great look. New fans will be interested in him. But, they don’t know him. They will have to get to know him.

*Hangman Page. He has a great future ahead of him, despite the really poor way he has been booked so far. Hopefully the new fans won’t watch the horrible battle royal that earned his slot in the Title match or see him labor for what seemed like an hour to beat Kip Sabian at Fight For The Fallen. But when they first see him, it will be a “who’s that guy” type of response.

*The Young Bucks. They are darlings of the hardcore AEW fans, no doubt. But, what will the casual fan think when they see two small guys in a tag team? Tag Team wrestling has been deemed unimportant for years now, so that they have that strike against them. They are also small. Strike two. They clearly have the talent to turn every impression that a casual fan has around, but they won’t be a draw to that fan in the beginning.

Those are your main guys. From where I sit, they need a big injection of name brand talent. They need a name that can push to the mainstream masses during the month of September as they build to their debut. They need a name that those mainstream fans will say, “Holy Moly, I have to check this AEW out when it debuts.”

Obviously, most of those names are tied up by WWE, but one prominent one isn’t, and as luck will have it he will be in Chicago when AEW presents All Out at the end of August. In fact, he will be at Starrcast the day of the event. That man is CM Punk.

Let’s state up front, it won’t be easy for them to get Punk. But, it won’t be impossible either. Obviously, it will cost money. A lot of money. If Khan wants to make it happen, it will have to be for a lot more than the rumored $1.3M that his paying his EVP group. It will have to be more than he pays Jericho. For one thing, he will have to get him to come out of retirement, and that will cost Khan. For another, I see no world where Punk will work for the same or less than the above mentioned guys and frankly if I were him, I wouldn’t either.

But he is worth it. Well, worth it. He is a mainstream name that will generate the excitement among the casual fan that no one else on the roster will, due to the fact that unlike Jericho he has been out of the wrestling fan’s spectrum for years now while Jericho was on WWE TV not all that long ago.

Imagine on August 31 Jericho beats Page to become the first AEW Champion, which is what makes the most sense as you then use Jericho’s name and likeness in the advertising leading up to the show. People know Jericho, so that will get them interested. Now, imagine at the end of the PPV, Punk comes out and attacks the heel Jericho. The reaction would be INSANE. They then brawl around the building while the fans go nuts. For a month, in the ads leading up to the first show, we see that “what happened at All Out will be addressed when we debut on TNT on October 2”.

It will give AEW a major buzz leading up to the first show. It’s, by far, the best chance they have to draw a strong number on show one. It won’t come cheaply but it will give them the best chance they have to make that great first impression. Get on the horn Tony Khan, you have a deal to make.

[Bob-O]

I thought this was an interesting column about a topic we're going to get sick of seeing in a few weeks. Dave raises some really good points about AEW's current mainstream drawing power and household appeal that I don't think a lot of people take into consideration when looking at their vision. How DO they get from Point A to Point B? I'm not saying it can't be done without Punk, but I'll agree with Dave that he's obviously the quickest way there...

[Big Red Machine]

I think most people will know that Moxley used to be Ambrose the moment they see him.

With the Bucks and Lucha Bros., the highlight reel of flips will help people understand them. I don't think AEW should be too worried.

I also think there are fewer "casual"/"mainstream" whatever fans than there used to be in the way we traditionally think of it. Most WWE fans who have a Twitter account have probably heard of Kenny Omega and the Young Bucks before and I'm certain will at least be willing to see what the hype is about.

[cero2k]

I find it incredibly hard to believe they won't have a ace down their sleeve for the TNT debut, whether it's punk or not, I don't know.
I think their top roster is strong enough to attract people from everywhere, wwe, American, Mexican, uk, Japanese, etc, so I believe punk is not a do or die guy, but could be a big difference maker just like he was for a lot of people with his promo.

I do try to think of who could be that huge name that should come in for the debut show, and not a lot of people left unless someone jumps from njpw or WWE. Punk and Aj could make a huge impact.

[Thelone]

Bringing Punk feels like it could be a good idea to pop a rating, but a bad one in the long run.

Sure, he's most likely the bigger name they could sign right now that is available, but he's almost 41 and has more than five years of ring rust at this point, and then you have the obvious motivation issue. I'm sure he'd sign for a truck-load of money and to stick it to WWE, but that doesn't mean his heart would be into it. Of course, you also have the fact that he got his ass handed to him twice in the UFC and a lot of wrestling fans have soured on him for the Cabana thing and just being a douchebag in general, so his wrestling appeal has faded quite a bit since 2014.

[Big Red Machine]

Bringing Punk feels like it could be a good idea to pop a rating, but a bad one in the long run.

Sure, he's most likely the bigger name they could sign right now that is available, but he's almost 41 and has more than five years of ring rust at this point, and then you have the obvious motivation issue. I'm sure he'd sign for a truck-load of money and to stick it to WWE, but that doesn't mean his heart would be into it. Of course, you also have the fact that he got his ass handed to him twice in the UFC and a lot of wrestling fans have soured on him for the Cabana thing and just being a douchebag in general, so his wrestling appeal has faded quite a bit since 2014.

I think he'd be a great person to bring in on a one-year, four matches type of deal like Jericho in NJPW.

[Thelone]

That would work... if you make him a heel. I mean, he would basically become what he despised the most in WWE : a part-timer. That could have some legs, but it's the same promotion that can't even do basic booking right, like don't have one of your top stars go twenty minutes against a lower midcarder, or a monster heel has to win matches to be taken seriously.

[Big Red Machine]

I think with Sabian they're trying to build him up underneath everyone else, and this strong showing against Page (after his win on the pre-show for Double Or Nothing) was there way of doing that. I agree it wasn't the best idea to have Page be in that spot, but I don't think it's terrible, either, because the moment Page beats Jericho, everything is erased, and a lot of this discussion seems to stipulate that the "TNT fans" aren't watching yet, so this won't hurt him to them.

[Thelone]

Well it bombed horribly if that was the point, but I'm also one of the few who thought that the Cody/Allin match didn't work because it felt like Allin survived his own blown spots more than anything Cody did.

... because the moment Page beats Jericho...

Page isn't winning the belt there though. Frankly, Jericho should make him tap with the liontamer in five minutes after the Sabian match. In all seriousness, I get that putting the belt on Jericho would feel like a TNA move, but Page is not at this level right now (his pretty weak pop at FftF is a giant red flag) and it's not like his title "hunt" is this great story when the guy won an embarrassing battle royale with 90% of clowns to earn this shot. Hell, he most likely wasn't supposed to be in that spot in the first place (and the whole thing seems silly after seeing a particular result today).

Since the "TNT fans" aren't there yet, tell his "road to the title" story there over the course of a year. That will be better than him as a champion being upstaged by almost every challenger.

[Bob-O]

I think most people will know that Moxley used to be Ambrose the moment they see him.

I honestly don't think so, I think you're giving too much credit to WWE Universe. Conspiracy "AEW In Bed With WWE" theories aside, I'm waiting for somebody to inform me irl that "...you know Vince McMahon owns that new AEW thing right? Half those guys are off his Japanese league..." - I'm giving it three weeks from the TNT debut. Doubt me all you want, but I know... I've lived it... and I'm waiting. WWE Universe, I'm convinced, would not recognize John Cena if he showed up in AEW as The Prototype.

Sure, he's most likely the bigger name they could sign right now that is available, but he's almost 41 and has more than five years of ring rust at this point, and then you have the obvious motivation issue. I'm sure he'd sign for a truck-load of money and to stick it to WWE, but that doesn't mean his heart would be into it.

I can see that, but we're also talking about the same dude that we watched work his ass off despite being z-packed off his rocker shitting his britches mid-match. Point being, despite being miserable, I think anyone who thinks he phoned it in his last few months with WWE needs to be ready for a heated debate. I'm also admittedly not the most observant person, haha, but perception being reality, personally my mind was blown after listening to Colt's podcast and the events that lead up to him walking out. I feel like he's the kind of guy that holds himself to a high level of accountability. Whether his heart's in it or not, I don't think he'd settle being the drizzles for a paycheck.

Of course, you also have the fact that he got his ass handed to him twice in the UFC and a lot of wrestling fans have soured on him for the Cabana thing and just being a douchebag in general, so his wrestling appeal has faded quite a bit since 2014.

Meh, the "WWE Universe" doesn't know anything about all that, and those "in the know" are on board with or without Punk.

he would basically become what he despised the most in WWE : a part-timer.

Ooooooooooh... I hadn't considered that...
Combined with the pre-written "AEW was MY VISION eight years ago. Without ME there wouldn't BE an "Elite"..." blah blah blah, you get the idea. The potential is nuclear, I forgot how good of a heel he is...